Air Exclusion

Moving past a big mistake in Ukraine

(Ukrainian Air Force F-16 operating over Ukraine [AP/Efrem Lukatsky])

Of all the strategic missteps and forms of repeated self-deterrence needlessly postponing Russia’s defeat in Ukraine, the refusal of NATO allies to launch an active military mission to protect Ukraine’s skies is the most egregious.

Russia first invaded and illegally occupied Ukrainian Crimea and parts of Donbas in early 2014 – just as the Sochi Olympics were ending. In these Russian-occupied areas, Moscow’s levies have engaged in torture, kidnapping and genocide ever since.

By 2021, Russia still occupied only seven percent of Ukraine. On February 24^th, 2022, the Kremlin launched a full-scale invasion, brutally seizing a further twelve percent of Ukraine’s territory. Ukrainian defenders have so far, despite all odds and the expectations of many, prevented Russia from taking more.

But allied decisions to deny air power and other forms of military assistance to Ukraine — policies that are rightly termed self-deterrence — have so far prevented Ukraine from ejecting Russian forces entirely from their country.

Let’s recall what happened.