Boxing Trump In
As a crucial summit opens, his allies and opponents are defying him
As the G7 begins in Kananaskis, the US president has painted himself into a corner.
First, his heavy-handed use of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, the National Guard and regular US military against migrants and lawful protesters alike has created a backlash – the largest popular groundswell of opposition to Trump since he was sworn in for his second term over four months ago.
From small places like Asheville, North Carolina to big centres like Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, over five million Americans marched against authoritarianism, oligarchic power and disregard for fundamental freedoms.
The ‘No Kings’ protests were organized by a loose coalition of over two hundred civil society organizations united in decrying Trump’s impunity and violence, which for them recall the repression that led to revolution a quarter millennium ago.
As a result, the focus of US news this weekend was not on reductions in Illegal border crossings or Trump’s vanity-driven birthday parade, but rather presidential use of the military for arbitrary detention and clamping down on dissent.
In a second blow to Trump’s agenda, French president Emmanuel Macron joined Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland prime minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen in Nuuk
(The prime ministers of Denmark and Greenland with French president Macron on a military aircraft over Greenland.)
Macron confirmed everyone was of the view that Greenland “must not be sold or taken.” In response to a journalist’s question, he was more explicit: “One cannot occupy the territory of an ally.” He cautioned the US against undertaking any special operation for that purpose.
Greenland is part of the Danish realm, but not the European Union. This unprecedented expression of French solidarity, with EU support, points up the absurdity of Trump’s threats. As we have noted before, the US already has a military base in Greenland and the right to establish more under existing agreements.
Any unilateral military move against Greenland would only harden anti-US opinion.
The third factor weighing on Trump as this G7 opens is Israel’s attack on Iran, which Washington did not support.
In 2018, during Trump’s first term, he withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed by Iran in 2015 with the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, Germany and the EU. Over the past seven years, Iran has expanded production of centrifuges exponentially.
Since returning to office, Trump has reversed course – seeking a new agreement with Iran in return for sanctions relief.
But it was too late.
On June 12, the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. On June 13. Israel attacked nuclear facilities across Iran and decapitated Iran’s security leadership.
Their aim is to ensure Tehran never builds a nuclear weapon for use against Israel. So far, Israel’s military operation appears to be succeeding.
As the meeting start in Kananaskis, Trump is on the back foot, with Americans and allies including Israel openly defying him.
How will he react? We shall see.
All fair points, John. You are right that it's early days and strategic failure is absolutely possible, especially if the regime circles the wagons and no viable political opposition materializes. But on the early goals being met, I was taking my cue (among others) from Sir John Sawers in today's FT, whose assessments are usually quite astute.
Concerning Israel’s attacks on Iran going pretty well, let’s wait and see. This has been war-gamed to death over the years, and the outcome has always been only a temporary setback to Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran should respond by leaving the NPT, the loss of IAEA monitoring would be a major setback (after all, it’s how we know how much enriched Uranium and how many centrifuges of which kind Iran has). I’ve long viewed Israel as tactically brilliant, operationally very competent and strategically moronic (one of several examples: Lebanon 1982). And wars are won only on the strategic level.