How to Win a War

The ceasefire & return of hostages are Israel's doing

(Trump and other leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13th to announce a ceasefire in Gaza. Israeli leaders were not present.)

As countries fall over one another to receive accolades and praise for the ceasefire agreement formalized yesterday in Sharm el-Sheikh, it is important to understand why only one state really deserves credit for this result.

The hostages taken by Hamas during their terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7^th, 2023 have only been released because for two years Israel has fought and won a comprehensive victory over Hamas and its enablers.

Israel defined and achieved three major goals.

First, they destroyed Hamas as a military force, initially by taking out Hamas’ ability to launch large-scale missile attacks or further terrorist assaults on Israel. Then the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) targeted the Hamas order of battle, one battalion at a time, reducing it to ten percent of its former size. These operations included major offensives against Hamas strongholds in Gaza City, culminating in Operation Gideon’s Chariots I and II, which began in May and August.

Second, Israel prevented its enemies from opening a second front. In 2023 and 2024, the IDF targeted top Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers in Damascus. With daring and precision, they took out the high command of Hezbollah just as it was gearing up for war. Both before and after Assad’s fall last December, they created buffers in Syria to ensure no threat emerged from that direction.

Third, ‘Operation Rising Lion’ in June degraded Iran’s missile launch capabilities and nuclear weapons programme. The IDF conducted over 1,400 airstrikes targeting 100-120 high-value targets. Israel claims to have killed three dozen senior IRGC generals and nuclear scientists and to have reduced Iran’s operational missile firing capability by three-quarters.

The threat to Israel from Iran and its proxies has been existential for decades. In 1980, Ayatollah Khomeini called the Jewish state a “cancerous growth” and called for the country to be “wiped from the face of the earth.” Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad renewed these statements of genocidal intent in 2000 and 2005 – just as Hamas was taking over in Gaza.

Hamas built up its war machine to strike Israel under the noses of donors, including the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). Between 2005 and 2023, Iran and Hamas launched over 15,000 rocket attacks against Israel from Gaza – and a further 13,200 rocket attacks after the October 7^th, 2023 terrorist attacks.

The most painful consequence of this war has been the massive loss of civilian lives in Gaza itself. Here too UN agencies and most media have done the world a tremendous disservice by reporting deaths, without any deeper assessment, as civilian casualties of IDF operations — a highly irresponsible approach. The truth is that Hamas, almost uniquely among terrorist and irregular war-fighting groups, was indifferent to the fate of Gazans and deliberately put them in harm’s way.

Since 1948 Israel has twice been surprised by its enemies. The Yom Kippur War, launched by Egypt and Syria on October 6^th 1972, left 2,656 Israelis dead. But the attackers incurred much heavier losses. As a result, Israel and Egypt became firm US allies. Syria doubled down on its strategic alliance with Moscow.

Israel’s response to the October 7^th terrorist attacks have decimated Iran’s so-called axis of resistance – the proxy army it spent decades nurturing. Syria is no longer a reliable ally of Moscow. Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes are weaker. Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, Pakistan, Qatar, Syria, Turkey and other states continue to host and train terrorist groups, but lack ready access to bases on Israel’s doorstep.

Iran and Israel are very far from being at peace. But the ceasefire and return of hostages have occurred only because of Israeli strength and military prowess. Qatar and Turkey, who long hosted Hamas leaders, deserve no credit. Egypt disgracefully closed its borders to refugees from Gaza. Trump failed to dismantle Iran’s axis of resistance. France and UK harangued Israel, while failing to counter Anti-Semitism and pro-Hamas propaganda flourishing for two years in their streets.

Israel now has the upper hand because it fought a three-phase war of self-defence and won. Its intelligence and military capabilities are second to none. As the pre-eminent military power in its region, it has shown that peace is only possible once armed aggression has been decisively defeated.