Lessons from the Front
Russian hubris is giving allies new advantages
(Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev wake-boarding in Miami on Sunday, December 28th, 2025 — just ahead of Ukrainian president Zelenskyy’s talks with Trump)
In 2025 the world was still at war. Ukraine fought for its survival — to uphold principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity on which we all rely. Our societies in Canada, the UK, Europe and elsewhere battled to preserve democracy, freedom and the rule of law — all of which are under unprecedented stress.
It was a year of major political setbacks. Ever since Trump returned, the US has been in political limbo, seemingly with little appetite to uphold basic constitutional norms or preserve alliances that made America strong for two centuries. Trump quickly choked off almost all US military support for Ukraine – cuts for which European, Canadian and Japanese support did not fully compensate.
Trump’s mendacity and isolationism were exacerbated by the cynical, time-wasting ploy of pro-Kremlin ‘diplomatic’ distractions, which made headlines but tilted the playing field away from the US national interest and towards the nakedly hegemonic agenda today’s Kremlin has been pursuing single-mindedly for two decades. Trump’s reality TV summitry was a sellout masquerading as a peace process. Chamberlain and Daladier, the architects of the 1939 Munich débâcle, look high-principled by comparison. Ten months’ later, Trump’s charade has drawn in and distracted far too many allied political leaders and policy-makers, for far too long.
Yet allies nevertheless took major steps forward. Europe and Canada are now mostly on a war footing, with dramatically rising (if still back-loaded) defence budgets. Fighter jets and air defence systems arrived in Ukraine – though not in nearly the quantities needed to achieve air superiority. Canada, Germany and Japan chose new leaders, all with compelling credentials. In a year of crucial elections, Moldova and Romania beat back a tide of Russian interference. For the first time in over a decade, political parties topped the polls that did not enjoy support from Russia’s online hordes. The Netherlands also rediscovered the political centre.
So the coalition of the willing was not idle – even if it is still not confronting the threat Russia represents and definitely not yet a coalition for victory. Amid these setbacks and successes, three shifts happened in 2025 that have set the stage for an agenda focused on defeating Russia and deterring China in 2026.
First Shift: Trump/Russia
Most now see Trump as a Russian asset, proxy and ally. This new consensus, while not fully measured by polling, is now broadly held. It has taken hold quite quickly within the US and around the world. The truth just came home to roost, exposing the ‘Russia hoax’ brigade as the greatest fraud of all. For most observers, the point is no longer that Trump is just an erratic buffoon – a malignant Archie Bunker. Ever since returning to the White House, he has been actively promoting Russia’s interest. He transgresses US law, policy and treaty obligations to benefit Russia. He does not just lean Russia’s way: he takes Moscow’s side – with consistency and impunity. He takes instruction from the Kremlin, then reports back to his political masters.
