New Wave Spring Bamboo Pirates
Democratic stirrings but no wave
(‘One Piece’ anime pirate flag in Indonesia [BBC])
Popular uprisings have had a mixed track record. Violent revolutions very frequently give rise to highly repressive regimes. When governments make concessions or enact democratic reforms in the face of mass pressure, some changes endure. Many more prove transitory, and fade. So many factors are in play.
The past two centuries have seen five great eras of popular protest. Europe’s 1848 revolutions ended feudalism and ushered in ground-breaking constitutions in several states. The six decades after 1860 saw voting rights extended to men and women, plus waves of reunification and state creation from Germany, Italy and Canada to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in 1920. Postwar decolonization followed, as did a third democratic wave in the 1970s/1980s and the stunning post-1989 collapse of one-party communist rule in eight European countries, while 20 states resumed their independence on the ruins of the former Soviet Union and former Yugoslavia. Dozens of democratic transitions took place, involving every continent.
The last decade of the twentieth century may have seen the most dramatic period of democratization so far. But many of its gains have been reversed. Colour revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine were followed by Russian electoral interference and invasions. The 2009 Iranian Green Movement and 2011 Arab Spring brought new wars and repression. Ukraine’s inspiring Maidan Revolution of Human Dignity, which sent a Kremlin stooge fleeing back to Moscow, was quickly followed by Russia’s first invasion and occupation of parts of Ukraine. For more than a decade, China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and other authoritarian regimes have leaned into the task, as they see it, of preventing or high-jacking democratic uprisings.
As a consequence, the last decade of popular protests has yielded meagre results. In Georgia, demonstrations since 2017 have been steadily quashed by repressive legislation and arbitrary arrests, as the populist Georgian Dream morphed into an even more brutal arm of Moscow’s repression. In Sudan, a 2018-19 revolution toppled Bashir, an indicted war criminal, but led to a coup in 2021 and an escalating civil war since 2023. In Algeria, the 2019 Hirak movement forced Bouteflika out but was followed by repression that set back democratic aspirations.
There have been a few enduring gains. Armenia’s 2018 velvet revolution led to snap elections, reform, restored judicial independence and traction for civil society, while reducing Yerevan’s dependence on Moscow. Sri Lanka’s 2022 Aragalaya protests ousted Rajapaksa, who had overseen a 2009 genocide against Tamils, enhancing accountability and the rule of law, while curbing China’s influence.
But for nearly two decades the broader narrative has been negative. Overall global trendlines have been running against democracy since 2006, as we noted in a September 17thessay on ‘democratic entanglement.’ Take the youth activists whose anthem was the 2007 Girls’ Generation K-pop tune ‘Into the New World’. In South Korea itself, 2016-17 anti-corruption protests ousted one president and 2024 anti-martial law protests ousted another. But the 2019-20 pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong was crushed. In Thailand, a decade of mass protests — including a 2020 movement singing the same anthem — led to a brief democratic opening in 2023, followed by a renewed authoritarian slide.
The 2024 monsoon revolution in Bangladesh and 2025 Gen Z revolution in Nepal brought down sitting governments. But new regimes have not improved democracy, the economy or stability. Fall 2025 protests in Indonesia and the Philippines shrank civic space available for protest and democratic action. In Myanmar and Kenya, autumn protests modelled themselves on earlier movements – in Myanmar’s case, the 2021 ‘spring revolution’ against a Tatmadaw coup and in Kenya’s, the 1990 Saba Saba (7/7, July 7th) movement against Moi’s one-party rule. Neither has yet had any decisive result. The impact of similar protests in Morocco and Peru has also so far been mixed. In Madagascar, recent youth protests triggered a military coup.
Bamboo grows in every country where youth have protested this year. But today’s activists are inspired by popular culture, not flowering plants. At the Economist noted, their symbol is the hat-wearing Jolly Roger of Monkey D. Luffy, the rubbery anti-hero of ‘One Piece’, a Japanese manga/anime mega-hit now on Netflix.
Countries with longer track records of fair elections and constitutional government are the most fertile ground for democratic revival today. Recent events in Armenia, South Korea and Sri Lanka — and perhaps Nepal and Kenya — have shown popular protest still has a central role to play in moving the democratic dial. At the same time, Moldova and Romania used robust regulation and decisive government action to safeguard representative institutions from outside attack.
Despite great courage and creativity, Gen Z and its allies are not yet driving wider change. Autocratic retrenchment in many states, including many of the world’s largest, means a new wave of popular uprisings is not yet underway. Today’s political pirates are still outnumbered by their repressive adversaries. Sadly, dictators still have more overall sway on social media than even K-pop does. But global youth are clearly restless and getting organized. If more chinks appear in the wall of authoritarian control, democracy may regain its stride sooner than we think.