'Nothing Ever Happens'

US markets face a complacency risk

In today’s paralyzed world, individual actions and events still matter. While we safely disregard most, some have the weight to become pivotal inflection points.

But which ones? As political uncertainty has spiked, a vast cottage industry has emerged predicting new wars, political meltdowns or market crashes.

While these Cassandras have at times been right, their track record is spotty. Very few saw COVID-19 or the European migration crisis coming; fewer yet predicted Brexit, Trump’s victories or civil wars in Syria, Libya, Sudan and Mali.

Forecasts of a Taliban comeback or full-scale Russian invasion were a dime a dozen, but few credited them until those blows actually hit Afghanistan and Ukraine. We have been gullible and disbelieving, apparently at the same time.