In today’s paralyzed world, individual actions and events still matter. While we safely disregard most, some have the weight to become pivotal inflection points.
But which ones? As political uncertainty has spiked, a vast cottage industry has emerged predicting new wars, political meltdowns or market crashes.
While these Cassandras have at times been right, their track record is spotty. Very few saw COVID-19 or the European migration crisis coming; fewer yet predicted Brexit, Trump’s victories or civil wars in Syria, Libya, Sudan and Mali.
Forecasts of a Taliban comeback or full-scale Russian invasion were a dime a dozen, but few credited them until those blows actually hit Afghanistan and Ukraine. We have been gullible and disbelieving, apparently at the same time.
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