Outside Influence 4

China, Russia and the US Are Setting Crucial Terms for Canada's Campaign

Over the past several days foreign-backed disinformation and influence operations have had less profile on Canada’s campaign trail. But social media algorithms and MAGA-linked activity are still framing political debate online and elsewhere, while indirectly shaping public opinion. In addition, as Marcus Kolga has pointed out in The Line today, Canada’s main political parties are so far largely side-stepping the issue of foreign interference instead of proposing effective policies to counter the clear threat it represents to the integrity of our democracy.

What the Bots Are Saying

Twitter/X algorithms still favour Carney over Poilievre. In our latest samples, the Liberal leader and prime minister had only 10 percent negative coverage – compared to 50 percent for the Conservative leader and leader of the official opposition. For the leading parties, negative sentiment was stronger – with the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) facing 50 percent negative coverage in English and 30 percent in French. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) had 75 percent negative coverage in English and 50 percent negative coverage in French. Despite the appearance of both leaders on last night’s Tout le monde en parle (TLMEP), many prominent CPC-related posts in French on Twitter/X are from the 2019 election.

(Longtime TLMEP host Guy-A. Lepage, from the Radio-Canada website)

The role of TikTok in shaping debate around Canada’s current elections is being rightly scrutinized – partly due to Meta’s continuing ban on Canadian news. In recent days, TikTok’s Canadian office has highlighted the fact that the Hogue inquiry “made no finding that TikTok was used to interfere in Canada's elections.” Yet one bias is evident: a search on the platform for ‘Peter Yuen China’ yields zero relevant results, as Beijing’s information warriors strive to make this controversy over the Liberal candidate for Markham-Unionville disappear.

Coverage of both the Liberal and Conservative leaders is prominent on YouTube, with recent Poilievre videos garnering slightly higher viewership – perhaps because of his large audience and longstanding commitment to the platform.

Yet two of the three most influential social media platforms shaping narratives for the current federal election campaign – X/Twitter as heavily influenced by Musk/Russia, TikTok by China – continue to favour Mark Carney and the LPC.

US Dimension

Over the past several days #Wexit has been less prominent in Twitter/X traffic promoted by US accounts. But the #51ststate hashtag — in wide circulation since Brian Lilley’s February 17 interview with Steve Bannon — has been amplified. An ‘https://americafund.ca’ website by ‘Canadians for the 51^st state’ was highlighting a ‘sold-out’ April 12 event in Edmonton with ‘51^st state leaders.’

On April 11, Trump ally and disgraced former Republican member of Congress Matt Gaetz tweeted in support of Poilievre. MAGA views feature prominently on Rumble, whose Canadian founder Chris Pavlovski was given the so-called ‘New Media seat’ in the White House press pool on February 12. Vice President JD Vance and Trump backer Peter Thiel are investors in Toronto-backed Rumble. The ‘New Media seat’ also recently featured Russian propagandists Tim Pool and ZeroHedge.

While less prominent, the #DONOTELECTMARKCARNEY hashtag has been supported on Twitter/X and elsewhere by networks linked to MAGA and Canada’s 2022 truckers’ blockade. Another voice featured by these networks has been Désirée Fixler, the UK-based anti-ESG/DEI consultant who supported Germany’s AfD. Prominent anti-Poilievre hashtags (e.g. #MapleMAGA and #NeverPoilievre) are being boosted on Twitter/X by foreign-directed accounts.

Foreign-Backed Proxies

While Canadian views on the continuing crisis in Gaza remain wide-ranging and the issue has barely featured in Canada’s campaign, the ‘Palestine platform’ reportedly endorsed by over two dozen NDP and Liberal incumbent MPs and candidates aligns with aims of pro-Hamas influence operations backed by Iran and other players.

Conclusion

With two weeks to go, foreign influence remains an important election issue, if less prominent in recent days. Twitter/X and TikTok remain critical vectors through which Russia and China are shaping Canada’s democratic terms of debate. TikTok has effectively censored the issue of Liberal candidate Peter Yuen’s pro-Beijing stances; Twitter/X continues to express a clear algorithmic preference for Carney. Twitter/X and Rumble are showcasing MAGA-aligned ‘51^st state’ views.