Velvet to Jagged

Violent repression is reversing democratic gains

The Czech and Slovak ‘Velvet Revolution’ began on this day in 1989. It wasn’t the first or most decisive post-communist uprising. But it encapsulated an era. It continues to inspire activists seeking freedom for their countries. Why haven’t more popular movements since then overthrown repressive regimes?

Opposition activism since the fall of the Berlin wall falls into five stages.

First, there were the successful transitions, fuelled by massive citizen engagement, starting in about June 1989 in Poland, then moving to Hungary, East Germany, Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia. Within two years, they had mostly replaced autocratic regimes with democratic structures. Civil society in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine also made waves via the ‘singing revolution’ and other initiatives.

The second stage came with the dissolution of Yugoslavia, which unleashed waves of protest in Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia, as well as in Albania. The reverberations reached distant jurisdictions such as Georgia and Indonesia.

This was followed by the third stage — the ‘colour revolutions’ proper — which began with Serbia’s ‘bulldozer’ in 2000, then continued with Georgia’s rose (2003), Ukraine’s orange (2004), Kyrgyzstan’s tulip and Lebanon’s cedar revolutions, as well as Ecuador’s outlaw rebellion, all three of which took place in 2005.